Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates seek to involve themselves with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
