Just two months in the past that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while his coach admonished him for failing to anticipate a through-ball. At that point, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or the reason for Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely much more joyous. After Rogers drilled in his brace-sealing goal to reinstate his side's advantage, the boss tore off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and roared. Villa marched on to a tenth straight victory and having failed to win any of their first six fixtures, now sit only three points off the leaders Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they have not been completely commanding this season, even as the positive results have piled up.
According to the data, twice all season has the team registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club which has strung together ten consecutive victories, they seem weirdly vulnerable – but currently the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with some clinical strikes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and it happened against United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, arced just inside the upright from the edge of the area. His brace-completing goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one capitalizing on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. The team has won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they must confront in the near future. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot keep on drilling the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is another reality in which, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet find their top level.
- The main striker might resume scoring again.
- The winger might become the performer he showed in Germany.
- The defensive duo will eventually come back from the treatment room, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
This could contain the seeds of a title challenge, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would be third at Christmas. And certainly earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while looking like a vital player for the national team.
This winning streak should be enjoyed precisely because it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the Villa faithful when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. As he deserves to. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
